Posts

Update on the February Cyclones.

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​ Madagascar faced a severe humanitarian emergency following two successive tropical cyclones in early February 2026 that have affected hundreds of thousands of people and caused extensive damage across the island. The Cyclones Cyclone Fytia struck Madagascar's west and northwest coast on January 31, 2026, with sustained winds exceeding 150 km/h and gusts reaching 250 km/h.The storm displaced tens of thousands of people and caused devastation across nine regions spanning 38 districts. Cyclone Gezani made landfall near Toamasina, Madagascar's second-largest city, on February 10, 2026, just ten days after Fytia.The storm underwent rapid intensification with sustained winds peaking at 200 kilometres (125 miles) per hour at Category 3 hurricane strength.As it passed near Toamasina, rain rates reached up to 4 centimeters (1.6 inches) per hour, causing widespread flooding. Human and Infrastructure Impact The combined impact of both cyclones has been catastrophic: - Deaths and injurie...

Madagascar’s Government Dissolution: Causes, Political Forces, and Geopolitical Implications

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In an era defined by disinformation, covert influence, and strategic uncertainty, the  Robert Lansing Institute for Global Threats and Democracies Studies (RLI)  has become a leading independent voice in understanding the hidden architecture of global conflict    They published the following on 13 March 2026     ​ The dissolution of the Malagasy government in March 2026 represents another stage in Madagascar’s prolonged political crisis following the military-backed transition of 2025 . The country’s transitional leader,  Michael Randrianirina , dismissed Prime Minister  Herintsalama Rajaonarivelo  and the entire cabinet, effectively ending the government formed only months earlier.  The decision reflects deeper structural tensions inside Malagasy politics: social unrest, military influence, elite rivalry, and competition over the island’s strategic economic assets. Understanding the dissolution requires examining both internal dyna...

What can Madagascar learn from the Asian experience of economic development?

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I have just visited Malaysia and was wondering what could Madagascar learn.   ​ Asian countries have successfully developed their economies and reduced poverty through a combination of strategies tailored to their specific circumstances. Here are some key approaches: 1. Market Reforms and Liberalization: Countries like China and India adopted market-oriented reforms, opening their economies to international trade and investment. This led to increased foreign direct investment (FDI), boosting growth. 2. Manufacturing and Export-Driven Growth: Many Southeast Asian nations, including Vietnam and Thailand, developed robust manufacturing sectors. By focusing on exports of textiles, electronics, and other goods, they created jobs and stimulated economic growth. 3. Investment in Education and Skills Development: Countries such as South Korea emphasized education, resulting in a skilled workforce capable of adapting to technological changes, which is vital for economic development. 4. Infr...

Economic impact of recent cyclones

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​ Cyclones Fytia and Gezani, striking Madagascar in late January and early February 2026, have inflicted severe economic damage, particularly through destruction of infrastructure, agriculture, and supply chains in key areas like Tamatave (Toamasina), exacerbating food insecurity and hindering recovery in a country where 80% of the workforce relies on subsistence farming. Immediate Humanitarian and Infrastructure Losses These back-to-back cyclones caused 38 deaths, 374 injuries, and affected over 260,000 people, with 400,000 in urgent need of aid; Tamatave, Madagascar's second-largest city and a major economic hub, saw 80% of its structures damaged, including the vital Toamasina port that handles 75% of international freight for exports like vanilla, minerals, and seafood.  - Damage to roads, water, electricity, schools, health facilities, and businesses has disrupted commerce and isolated markets.  - Flooding destroyed rice fields and household food stocks during the crop-gro...

Update on the Gezani disaster

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​ Cyclone Gezani struck Madagascar's east coast on February 10, 2026, causing widespread devastation in Toamasina and surrounding areas, with the death toll rising to at least 38 as of February 14. The storm, the second in recent weeks after Cyclone Fytia, displaced over 250,000 people and damaged up to 80% of Toamasina's infrastructure, prompting urgent international aid appeals.   Impact in Madagascar - Casualties and Displacement: Reports confirm 38 deaths, 374 injuries, and at least 12,000 displaced, with over 18,000 homes destroyed and 50,000 damaged; earlier figures ranged from 20 to 36 deaths. - Damage in Toamasina: Winds up to 250 km/h demolished 75-80% of the city, including homes, roads, power grids, hospitals, schools, and WFP facilities; electricity is at 5%, water is scarce, and debris blocks access.  - Atsinanana Region: Extensive destruction, with 90% of roofs blown off and ongoing assessments.  Humanitarian Response Madagascar's leader, Colonel Michael Ran...