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Navigating the Challenges: Wages and Reforms in Madagascar's Economy. Part Three - Budget Deficits

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Budget deficits   ​ Madagascar generates approximately US$1. 5 billion in annual government revenue with GDP around $17 billion. However, government spending exceeds revenue: - In 2024, total government expenditure was US$2.67 billion (16.43% of GDP). - In 2025, the budget deficit was 4.1% of GDP (~US$0.62 billion), and in 2024 it was 3.8% of GDP (~US$0.57 billion).  - Projected deficits for 2026–2027 remain around 4.0% of GDP annually.   Conclusion:   Madagascar’s current revenue is not sufficient to cover its expenses. The country consistently runs a budget deficit of 3.8–4.1% of GDP, relying on external aid, remittances, and borrowing to finance public services. Poor revenue generation (only ~11–12% of GDP) limits fiscal sustainability and constrains spending on education, health, and social protection. In the Financial Flows scenario (a development projection), government revenue could rise to 18.8% of GDP (~US$7.7 billion by 2043), enabling full coverage of expe...

Navigating the Challenges: Wages and Reforms in Madagascar's Economy. Part Two - the Economy.

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​ Madagascar's economy is characterised by a mix of agriculture, mining, and tourism, but it faces significant challenges.  Summary of Sector Contributions: - Agriculture: 25-30% of GDP - Services: 50% of GDP - Industry: 15-20% of GDP - Agriculture remains a cornerstone of the economy, while the services sector is the largest contributor, reflecting a shift towards urbanisation and economic diversification. - The mining sector, although smaller in percentage terms, plays a crucial role in export earnings and foreign investment Here are some key points: 1. Agriculture: Agriculture is a vital sector, employing about 70% of the population. Key Products: Rice, vanilla, coffee, cloves, and other crops. Agriculture employs a significant portion of the population and is vital for food security The sector is vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters. 2. Mining and industry The country is rich in natural resources, including minerals like nickel, cobalt, and graphite. Mining has th...

Navigating the Challenges: Wages and Reforms in Madagascar's Economy. Part One - Introduction

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​Average  salary $ 120 per month   Madagascar, an island nation rich in biodiversity and culture, faces significant economic challenges that impact its most vital sectors: education and healthcare. As the country strives to develop and improve living standards, the struggles of teachers and healthcare workers have become increasingly evident. Many dedicated professionals find themselves grappling with the harsh reality of delayed or even unpaid salaries, leaving them in precarious situations. In my conversations with teachers and healthcare professionals, I have witnessed firsthand the toll that these wage issues take on both providers and the communities they serve. The burden often falls on patients and parents, who are forced to navigate a system strained by financial insecurity.  This series will delve into the complexities of Madagascar's economy, examining the crucial role of wages in sustaining these essential services, the historical context behind the current sta...

Disability: A Critical Issue in Madagascar

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​ I met a young lady who had written an excellent document “ Disabled, Source of Happiness”. It focuses on job creation for disabled women and a project to empower women through training in sewing. This got me thinking about the broader subject of disability    Disability is a significant yet often overlooked issue in Madagascar, affecting millions of individuals and their families across the nation. Despite the progress made in recent years, the challenges faced by people with disabilities remain profound and multifaceted. In this blog post, we will explore the current situation regarding disability in Madagascar, the barriers faced by individuals, and the importance of building a more inclusive society. The Current Landscape Madagascar is home to a diverse population, with an estimated 1.5 million people living with disabilities, which represents approximately 5% of the total population. These individuals often encounter numerous obstacles that hinder their ability to partic...

​Madagascar and China

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China and Madagascar share a comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership, with China serving as Madagascar's largest trading partner and biggest source of imports. Bilateral ties span major infrastructure development, agricultural assistance—such as Chinese hybrid rice farming—and significant mining and water access projects across the island.  China and Madagascar share a comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership, with China serving as Madagascar's largest trading partner and biggest source of imports. China is Madagascar's primary source of imports, providing machinery, electronic equipment, fabrics, and vehicles. In return, Madagascar primarily exports primary resources to China, including minerals like graphite, micas, and nickel, as well as aquatic products. To promote balanced trade, Madagascar was named a founding partner of the International Mangrove Centre in Shenzhen and benefits from preferential zero-tariff treatments for its exports to the Chinese mar...

Resentment towards China

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A recent survey highlighting China as the most disliked country in Madagascar stems primarily from widespread resentment over Chinese economic involvement in the nation, amid broader anti-China sentiments fuelled by political unrest. Key Factors Driving Dislike Perceived Support for Corruption and Neglect of Locals   Chinese investments in Madagascar have drawn sharp criticism for bolstering corrupt governments while sidelining the welfare of everyday citizens. Large-scale projects, often tied to loans and infrastructure deals, are seen as benefiting elites rather than addressing poverty or development needs.  Escalating Tensions from Political Eruptions   Ongoing instability in Madagascar, including recent eruptions of protests, has amplified accusations against China's African strategy. These events have spotlighted how Beijing's engagements are viewed as propping up unpopular regimes, eroding public trust.  Broader Global Perceptions Echoed Locally ...

The dangers to Madagascar of closer connections to Russia

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Closer connections to Russia might offer certain economic or political benefits, however, the associated risks could significantly impact Madagascar’s sovereignty, governance, and social stability, warranting careful consideration and balanced diplomatic engagement. ​ Here are some key concerns: 1. Political Dependence: Strengthening ties with Russia could lead to increased political dependence on Moscow, potentially undermining Madagascar's sovereignty. This might result in Madagascar aligning with Russian geopolitical interests rather than prioritizing its own national goals. 2. Human Rights Concerns: Russia's poor human rights record raises concerns that closer ties could normalize or exacerbate authoritarian practices in Madagascar. The potential influence of Russian governance models could threaten democracy, freedom of expression, and civil liberties. 3. Military Involvement: If Madagascar were to engage more closely with Russia militarily, it might invite the presence of...