Is Madagascar a failed state ?

The short answer is no!!

In this post I explain why not but also that it is walking a tightrope and it if falls it could sadly emerge as a failed state.

What is a failed state?

A failed state is a political entity that is unable to perform its basic functions and responsibilities, leading to a breakdown of social, economic, and political order. Characteristics of a failed state typically include:

1. Loss of Control: The government has lost control over its territory and cannot enforce laws or provide basic services.

2. Political Instability: There is frequent change in leadership, often due to violence or coups, and the governing authority is unable to maintain peace.

3. Economic Collapse: The economy is in severe decline, leading to rampant poverty, unemployment, and a lack of resources for the population.

4. Human Rights Violations: Citizens often face oppression, violence, and abuse by both state and non-state actors.

5. Weakened Institutions: Essential institutions, such as the judiciary and law enforcement, are ineffective or non-existent, resulting in a lack of rule of law.

6. Social Unrest: Widespread protests, civil wars, or ethnic strife can occur as different groups vie for power or resources.

Examples of failed states can include nations experiencing prolonged civil war, severe governmental corruption, or humanitarian crises, such as Somalia, Syria, or Yemen. The term is often used in discussions of international relations, security, and development.

Then turning to Madagascar,

Madagascar is considered a fragile state rather than a failed state, with a Fragile States Index score of about 79.8 in 2024, down slightly from 81.7 in 2023. This score places Madagascar in the "high warning" category of fragility but below the threshold often associated with outright state failure (scores of 90 and above)

The Fragile States Index measures vulnerability through 12 indicators including security apparatus, factionalized elites, economic decline, human rights, rule of law, demographic pressures, and others. Madagascar shows signs of fragility such as political instability, limited government capacity, and economic challenges but has maintained some political stability and continuity through recent elections and governance reforms.

While Madagascar faces serious challenges—frequent political crises, natural disasters, economic difficulties, and governance issues—it has not reached the extreme breakdown of order, loss of territorial control, or institutional collapse that characterize a failed state. Instead, it is better described as close to fragile or at risk, requiring continued reforms and stability efforts to avoid further deterioration toward failure.

In summary, Madagascar is relatively close to a fragile state status but not currently classified as a failed state. Its current fragility level signals a need for ongoing attention to governance, economic resilience, and social stability to prevent slipping into a failed state condition.