Tales From Madagascar

​ In our first post, we defined Agency as the individual’s power to act and build, and Control as the state’s power to direct and constrain. We established that while Liberal Democracy is built to maximize agency, it is often perceived as messy, slow, or vulnerable to outside influence. But what happens when a population feels that their individual agency is no longer productive? What happens when they feel that the democratic process is not a vehicle for freedom, but a mask for corruption or external interference? Burkina Faso offers a striking case study in what we might call the Sovereignty Pivot. The Trade-Off: Safety and Pride vs. Individual Agency The current transition in Burkina Faso is not just a change in leadership; it is a fundamental shift in the nation’s political "currency." By moving away from competitive democratic models, the regime has made a deliberate choice to prioritize collective strength over individual political participation. *   The Cost: The suspe...

In our introduction, we defined the political spectrum by the tension between Agency—the individual's capacity to act—and Control—the state's capacity to direct.  To understand where other systems go, we must first understand the "gold standard" of the modern era: Liberal Democracy. It is a system specifically engineered to maximize individual agency, even if that makes the state's job of governing more difficult. The Core Logic: Power by Design Liberal Democracy is not just about voting; it is about limiting the state. The "Liberal" part of the name is the most important for our framework: it refers to the protection of the individual from the state’s potential for total control.      Checks and Balances: By splitting power between the executive, legislative, and judicial branches, the system makes it impossible for any one person to gain total control. This creates "friction," which protects individual agency from being crushed by a single, ...

It has been a little while since I last shared an update here. In the time I have been away, I have spent a lot of time reflecting on the work I’ve been doing—specifically, the deep dives into Madagascar’s economy, the challenges of tax reform, and the frustrating reality of how structural issues often stall progress. While writing about budget deficits and remittances is vital, I found myself constantly hitting a wall: the question of why. Why do certain reforms that seem so logical on paper fail to take root in practice? Why does the system seem to prioritize certain outcomes over others, regardless of the economic data? I realized that to truly understand the economic challenges I’ve been documenting, I needed to zoom out. I needed to look at the "plumbing" of the political systems themselves.  That is why I am starting a new series. We are going to move beyond the usual political labels—which often feel like they are built for Western contexts and don't quite fit the ...

In discussions about the future of Madagascar, a common refrain often emerges: "We need a strong leader to fix this." I recently had a fascinating conversation with the president of a local association here in Antananarivo, and my friend argued that, given the current state of affairs, the country might be better off under a dictatorship. It is a sentiment born of frustration—a reaction to the persistent inability of our current structures to deliver basic services, from reliable infrastructure to the timely payment of public servants. But I find myself disagreeing. A "strongman" model assumes that the rot is only at the top, and that a firm hand can simply sweep away systemic inefficiencies. I believe the opposite is true: the failure of the presidential model is a symptom of a deeper, structural disconnect. The real, sustainable change this country needs cannot be handed down from a palace; it must be built upward, like a pyramid, starting at the neighbourhood lev...

In the world of international relations, we are often fed a diet of "great power" politics—a chess game played by giants. But if you look closely at the nations that find themselves under the scrutiny of the International Criminal Court (ICC), a different, more sombre pattern emerges. It isn't just about ideology; it is about the quiet, steady erosion of domestic stability. I’ve been tracking the economic health of Madagascar —the budget deficits, the struggle to pay teachers and healthcare workers, and the systemic drag of corruption. These are not just dry statistics; they are the early warning signs of a state losing its grip.  The Mirror of International Law Take a look at the table of ICC warrant statuses below. It serves as a grim barometer of global friction.  ICC Warrant Status: A Global Snapshot What links these disparate cases?  Often, it is the breakdown of the internal social contract. When a state can no longer provide for its citizens, when it relies on repr...

​ In the first two parts of this series, we explored how AI could bridge our infrastructure gap and serve as a "force multiplier" for our teachers and healthcare workers. But all these technical solutions share a common vulnerability: the integrity of the system in which they operate. As we have seen in Madagascar, the most brilliant policy can be hollowed out by corruption, and the most necessary funds can disappear before they ever reach the people who need them. In his Economist interview, Elon Musk discussed the potential for AI to reshape society. If we are to apply that vision to Madagascar, we must confront the most difficult hurdle of all: governance. If the government won't reform, can technology force it? The Transparency Engine Corruption thrives in the dark. It relies on opaque budgets, complex procurement processes, and a lack of real-time oversight. AI offers a new, radical form of accountability: automated auditing. By mandating that all government procurem...

In his recent interview with The Economist, Elon Musk spoke of a future where AI might render most human work unnecessary, ushering in an age of automated abundance. While that global vision is provocative, it can feel profoundly disconnected from the daily struggle of a teacher in a rural Malagasy classroom or a nurse at a remote health center. For them, the challenge isn't the end of work—it is the impossibility of performing their work effectively with the limited tools they have. When we speak of a "shortage" in Madagascar's healthcare and education sectors, we aren't referring to a lack of willing hands or dedicated hearts. We are referring to a chronic deficit in trained, supported, and fairly compensated professional capacity. Many of our teachers and healthcare workers are profoundly dedicated, yet they are trapped in a system that fails to provide them with the training, the tools, or even the timely pay they need to function. They are forced to operate i...

The promise of Artificial Intelligence often sounds like a Silicon Valley fairy tale: an "age of amazing abundance" where productivity skyrockets, costs plummet, and human labour is liberated from drudgery. In his recent interview with The Economist, Elon Musk painted a vision of a future where AI becomes an unstoppable, transformative force, potentially making most human work unnecessary and ushering in unprecedented global wealth. For those of us living in Antananarivo, however, that vision feels less like a coming revolution and more like a distant, alien broadcast.  When you spend your days navigating a city where consistent electricity is a luxury and high-speed data is priced for the elite, the "AI-driven future" doesn't feel like a solution—it feels like another barrier. If we aren't careful, AI risks becoming a "luxury good," a tool that further concentrates wealth and power in the hands of the few, while widening the chasm between the conn...

​This appeared in my feed and I was a somewhat surprised and I was spurred on to write this post.  In the face of mounting national challenges—from the persistent budget deficits and the non-payment of public servants to the recent climate of instability in Antananarivo—the response from the highest levels of authority has taken a turn toward the spiritual. Recent statements by Colonel Michaël Randrianirina, suggesting that "public authorities cannot solve the country’s challenges alone" and calling for a return to God, have sparked significant debate. While faith is a cornerstone of Malagasy society, there is a dangerous line between personal belief and state administration. When leaders frame national crises as spiritual failings rather than policy failures, they are not just expressing piety—they are engaging in a calculated deflection of accountability. The Rhetoric of Moralization By shifting the burden of reform from tangible institutional changes to abstract personal m...

For many Malagasy professionals, the dream of working abroad represents more than just a job—it is a path toward a brighter future. Scammers understand this ambition perfectly. They no longer rely on sloppy, error-ridden emails; today, they operate with sophisticated, professional-looking websites, polished interviewers, and offer letters that look indistinguishable from the real thing.  But behind this veneer of legitimacy lies a dangerous trap. When a "dream job" requires you to pay upfront fees for processing, visas, or travel, you aren't being hired—you are being targeted. The "Professional" Facade: Why Sophistication is the Trap Scammers now invest significant time in building a convincing persona. They create high-quality websites, use branding identical to well-known global corporations, conduct formal video interviews, and provide detailed offer letters. Remember: a professional interview and a formal document are not proof of a legitimate job. These are...

​ After a year of living here in Antananarivo, I have learned that the most common conversation in our neighbourhoods is not about the latest government policy or international loan. It is about the "exit." In the quiet corners of our city, parents ask me the same painful question: "How do I get my child out of here?" As a British national who has made this country my home, I have watched this desperation grow. It is a feeling born of love and a very real, gnawing fear. When you see the instability in our streets, the disappearances, and the daily struggle to make ends meet, the "exit" feels like the only rational act of protection. A plane ticket to Europe or the Gulf is viewed as a lifeline—a way to secure a future that feels increasingly impossible to build here. But I have to share a hard, uncomfortable truth I have witnessed firsthand: the "exit" is often a mirage, and the path to it is paved with predators. The Predators in the Shadows I ha...

​ Today, we stand in solidarity with the people of Madagascar as the nation observes a day of mourning. Our thoughts are with the families and communities who have suffered the loss of loved ones to recent violence. May this day of reflection bring a collective resolve toward safety, justice, and peace for all. The government of Madagascar declared this day of national mourning in response to the growing public outcry over a series of disappearances, abductions, and violent crimes that have unsettled the country.  By designating this day, the authorities are formally acknowledging the severity of the situation and the grief felt by the public. As part of this observance:      Flags are at half-mast across the country as a sign of respect.      Public festivities are suspended to reflect the somber nature of the day.      Alcohol venues are closed, emphasizing a period of sobriety and reflection. This move is also tied to the government's recent anno...

In my recent discussions about the state of Madagascar’s economy, I have frequently highlighted the systemic challenges facing our teachers and healthcare workers—those who often wait months for their modest salaries. But to understand why reform feels so elusive, we must look at the other end of the spectrum: the compensation structure for those in power. Recently, a breakdown of ministerial "perks" was shared with me, and the numbers are as telling as they are sobering. Beyond a base salary of 10 million Ariary, a minister’s monthly package includes: *   Housing Allowance: 5 million Ariary *   Fuel Allowance: 12 million Ariary *   Communication/Credit: 8 million Ariary That is 25 million Ariary in allowances alone every single month. When you add the base salary, we are looking at a guaranteed monthly income that sits in a stratosphere far removed from the average citizen—or even the average civil servant. To put this into perspective, a teacher or nurse, who is the bac...

In my recent deep dives into Madagascar’s economy, I’ve often looked at the "big numbers"—the budget deficits, the IMF loans, and the weight of our national debt. But behind those cold, hard statistics lies a human story that is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore: the state of our public-sector pay. When I look at the numbers, Madagascar isn't an outlier compared to other low-income countries. The wage bill, at roughly 5% of GDP, sits right where you’d expect for an economy of Madagascars size. But look under the hood, and the picture changes. When you measure that same wage bill against our tax revenue, it’s a different story—one that explains why so many of our essential workers, particularly teachers and healthcare staff, face persistent delays in payment. The Balancing Act In 2022, the government’s compensation bill reached nearly 60% of total tax revenue. When more than half of every Ariary collected in taxes goes straight to salaries, there is precious little...

My recent blog series navigated the complex terrain of Madagascar’s economy. It dissected the budget deficits, scrutinised the impact of IMF loans, traced the flow of remittances, and confronted the corrosive reality of corruption. Yet, last week’s news—the Coface downgrade of Madagascar’s country risk from C to D—feels like a culmination of these individual threads. It is a signal that the press has largely misread, focusing on the static "business climate" rating while ignoring the darker reality of the country risk downgrade.  A Convergence of Risk When we look at the fiscal instability I have documented in earlier posts—the chronic cash flow problems, the delayed payments to teachers and healthcare workers, and the reliance on debt—the Coface downgrade is not a surprise; it is a confirmation.  To understand why this matters, it helps to know who these entities are. Coface is a global leader in trade credit insurance. They provide the insurance that allows companies to tra...

​ This series of twenty blogs has been an exploration of the complex, often contradictory, economic landscape of Madagascar. From the mechanics of remittances and the weight of international debt to the granular realities of tax reform and the corrosive impact of corruption, we have looked at the country not just as a set of statistics, but as a living, breathing system struggling to find its footing. As I conclude this series, three central themes have emerged as the pillars upon which the future of Madagascar’s economy rests: 1. Corruption as a Structural Tax The analysis consistently returned to the idea that corruption is not merely a moral failing; it is an economic barrier. When domestic revenues are siphoned away or mismanaged, it acts as a regressive tax on the most vulnerable. It creates a "cash flow" crisis that prevents the state from meeting its most basic obligations—most notably, the timely payment of teachers and healthcare workers. Eliminating this is not just...

The Paper Wall: When Legislation Meets Reality in Madagascar In my time here in Antananarivo, I have learned that there is often a vast, visible distance between what is written in the law and what happens on the street. We have seen the government introduce new legislation, anti-corruption bureaus, and reform agendas. On paper, the framework for a functioning, rule-of-law society exists. But for those of us living and working here, the reality feels very different. Corruption in Madagascar is not just an occasional occurrence; it is a deep-rooted feature of the system. It has become a "hidden tax" that every citizen pays, but it hits hardest those who have the least. The Institutional Barrier When we talk about the economic challenges of this country—the struggle to pay teachers, the underfunding of clinics, the difficulty of doing business—we cannot ignore where the money is being lost.  The institutions designed to protect the public are often the very places where the sys...

​ The Productivity Paradox: Navigating Wages and Reforms in Madagascar In the twelve months I have spent living in Antananarivo, I have seen the resilience of the Malagasy people firsthand. Whether it is the dedicated teachers in our local schools or the healthcare workers striving to provide care in under-resourced clinics, there is an undeniable spirit of commitment here. Yet, beneath this commitment lies a growing tension: the struggle to maintain a decent standard of living against the backdrop of an economy that is increasingly difficult to navigate. The recent implementation of the 300,000 Ariary Minimum Hiring Wage as of March 2026 is a necessary acknowledgement of the rising cost of living. However, as anyone who has tried to run a business—or even manage a small project—in this city knows, simply raising the wage floor is only one half of the equation. We are currently caught in a "productivity paradox." Small businesses are being squeezed by operational costs, while...

​ Madagascar’s Value Added Tax (VAT), or Taxe sur la Valeur Ajoutée (TVA), currently operates at a 20% standard rate. It is a cornerstone of the national budget, designed to capture consumption across the economy. While the rate is competitive within the African context, the system faces significant structural hurdles. Tax authorities are currently pivoting toward digital modernisation —specifically mandatory electronic invoicing—to combat revenue leakage. However, the system remains burdened by a high compliance threshold for small businesses, inconsistent VAT credit refund mechanisms, and a proliferation of exemptions that complicate tax administration and erode the revenue base. Here are some policy recommendations  Rationalize VAT Exemptions Madagascar’s current tax code is cluttered with a wide array of VAT exemptions that were likely intended to support specific sectors but have ultimately weakened revenue collection. These exemptions create a "leaky" system that is dif...

​ Madagascar’s current corporate tax system is a two-tier regime: small businesses under a turnover threshold use the synthetic tax, while companies above the threshold are generally taxed under the real regime at 20% of profit. The proposed 2026 reforms keep that basic structure but tighten rules, adjust thresholds, and add new tax treatments for several corporate situations.  Current system: - Turnover below MGA 400 million: synthetic tax regime applies; PwC summarizes it as 5% of 70% of turnover, with a minimum tax depending on activity.  - Turnover above MGA 400 million: corporate income tax is 20% of profit under the real regime.  - Minimum tax floors still apply under the real regime, with different floor amounts by activity.  Proposed / 2026 reform highlights: - Companies with turnover between MGA 200 million and MGA 400 million could choose the real income-tax regime without being automatically subject to VAT, if their financial statements are certified by a ...